Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 142,910
2 Rhode Island 141,812
3 South Dakota 139,713
4 Utah 125,309
5 Tennessee 123,249
6 Arizona 119,687
7 Iowa 116,898
8 Nebraska 114,891
9 Wisconsin 114,800
10 Oklahoma 113,899
11 South Carolina 113,806
12 New Jersey 113,656
13 Arkansas 112,079
14 Delaware 109,451
15 Indiana 109,328
16 Alabama 108,683
17 Illinois 107,769
18 Kansas 107,583
19 New York 106,816
20 Florida 106,277
21 Idaho 106,216
22 Mississippi 105,676
23 Minnesota 104,889
24 Nevada 103,939
25 Montana 103,418
26 Georgia 102,553
27 Wyoming 101,935
28 Kentucky 101,625
29 Massachusetts 101,546
30 Texas 100,881
31 Louisiana 99,899
32 Missouri 99,037
33 Michigan 97,312
34 Connecticut 96,657
35 New Mexico 95,588
36 California 95,288
37 North Carolina 94,892
38 Alaska 94,027
39 Ohio 93,107
40 Pennsylvania 92,666
41 Colorado 92,280
42 West Virginia 87,953
43 Virginia 78,346
44 Maryland 75,249
45 New Hampshire 71,562
46 District of Columbia 68,585
47 Washington 55,323
48 Puerto Rico 53,068
49 Maine 48,387
50 Oregon 45,932
51 Vermont 38,019
52 Hawaii 23,896

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 259
2 Colorado 244
3 Maine 207
4 West Virginia 187
5 Pennsylvania 173
6 Florida 163
7 Washington 157
8 North Dakota 153
9 Montana 149
10 Oregon 149
11 Nevada 148
12 Minnesota 147
13 Illinois 141
14 Wyoming 133
15 Kentucky 130
16 Nebraska 128
17 North Carolina 124
18 New Hampshire 123
19 Alabama 122
20 Indiana 118
21 Utah 115
22 Idaho 114
23 Ohio 114
24 Delaware 112
25 Louisiana 110
26 Tennessee 110
27 South Dakota 108
28 Wisconsin 103
29 Alaska 102
30 Connecticut 99
31 District of Columbia 98
32 Massachusetts 98
33 New York 97
34 Vermont 97
35 Iowa 96
36 Mississippi 93
37 Georgia 92
38 Rhode Island 89
39 Texas 88
40 New Mexico 84
41 Arizona 77
42 Maryland 74
43 Arkansas 71
44 Missouri 71
45 Virginia 67
46 South Carolina 66
47 New Jersey 55
48 Kansas 50
49 California 41
50 Hawaii 40
51 Puerto Rico 34
52 Oklahoma 32

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,916
2 New York 2,690
3 Massachusetts 2,571
4 Rhode Island 2,546
5 Mississippi 2,435
6 Arizona 2,395
7 Connecticut 2,290
8 Louisiana 2,251
9 South Dakota 2,248
10 Alabama 2,243
11 Pennsylvania 2,089
12 North Dakota 2,011
13 Indiana 1,997
14 Michigan 1,965
15 New Mexico 1,962
16 Illinois 1,946
17 Arkansas 1,916
18 Iowa 1,901
19 South Carolina 1,868
20 Georgia 1,866
21 Nevada 1,793
22 Tennessee 1,787
23 Texas 1,758
24 Kansas 1,740
25 Oklahoma 1,738
26 Delaware 1,692
27 Florida 1,672
28 Ohio 1,663
29 California 1,583
30 District of Columbia 1,579
31 West Virginia 1,535
32 Missouri 1,527
33 Kentucky 1,507
34 Montana 1,494
35 Maryland 1,471
36 Wisconsin 1,323
37 Minnesota 1,306
38 Virginia 1,284
39 Nebraska 1,233
40 Wyoming 1,230
41 North Carolina 1,227
42 Idaho 1,156
43 Colorado 1,138
44 New Hampshire 975
45 Puerto Rico 755
46 Washington 744
47 Utah 703
48 Oregon 611
49 Maine 593
50 Alaska 459
51 Vermont 403
52 Hawaii 343

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 7
2 Pennsylvania 4
3 West Virginia 4
4 Colorado 3
5 New Jersey 3
6 Oklahoma 3
7 Puerto Rico 3
8 South Dakota 3
9 Utah 3
10 Wisconsin 3
11 Arkansas 2
12 California 2
13 Delaware 2
14 District of Columbia 2
15 Florida 2
16 Georgia 2
17 Illinois 2
18 Kentucky 2
19 Louisiana 2
20 Minnesota 2
21 Missouri 2
22 Nebraska 2
23 New Hampshire 2
24 New York 2
25 Oregon 2
26 Rhode Island 2
27 Texas 2
28 Virginia 2
29 Alabama 1
30 Alaska 1
31 Arizona 1
32 Connecticut 1
33 Indiana 1
34 Iowa 1
35 Kansas 1
36 Maryland 1
37 Massachusetts 1
38 Mississippi 1
39 Montana 1
40 Nevada 1
41 North Carolina 1
42 North Dakota 1
43 South Carolina 1
44 Tennessee 1
45 Vermont 1
46 Washington 1
47 Wyoming 1
48 Hawaii 0
49 Idaho 0
50 Maine 0
51 New Mexico 0
52 Ohio 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 370,954 1 99
Crowley Colorado 362,151 2 99
Bent Colorado 274,879 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,170 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 246,007 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 142,236 187 94
Richland South Carolina 112,154 990 68
York South Carolina 111,208 1028 67
Orange California 85,330 2222 29
Pierce Washington 57,534 2854 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,193 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,583 1814 42
York South Carolina 1,363 2078 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,356 2091 33
Richland South Carolina 1,347 2101 33
Pierce Washington 739 2736 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons